| Resumo: |
In 1989, 70 million brazilians voted at the first presidential direct
election in the last 29 years. For the first time these electors were
called twice: in 11/15/89 and in 12/11/89 for a two-turns election. This
analysis of agregated data at county level tries to clear up the enigma of
"vote transference from the first to the second turn" in this election. At
first sight, the candidate of "Frente Brasil Popular" (Lula), should have
won the election in the second turn, for, if we add the votes from the
so-called "progressist candidates" (Lula, Brizola, Covas, Freire and
Ulisses), Lula would have 49% of the total number of votes (34.5
million). But the opposite happened; Collor ended up with 35 million
votes and Lula with 31 million. The analysis considering county size
showed that the more conservative candidates (in particular Collor)
achieved higher propor-dons of votes where the county population was
smaller, as well as in the more peripherical states in the north and
northeast of the country. The aggregated data analysis per multiple
regression showed that transferences were not total, but that Brizola
obtained almost total transference for Lula. In some states one could
notice transferings from Lula to Collor and vice-versa, but in smaller
proportions.
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