Um estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasil
The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victor...
| Principais autores: | Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira, Portugal, Marcelo Savino |
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| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | Português |
| Publicado em: |
2017
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| Assuntos: | |
| Obter o texto integral: |
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| Resumo: |
The political business cycle theory suggests that economic
fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that
economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision,
the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to
maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical
studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political
opportunism as much on rhacroeconomic variables as on the political
economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the
hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal
policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000.
The econometric tests we wifl use autoregressive integrated moved
average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months
that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political
opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal
government. |
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