Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study
Investigates the electorally expressed ideology of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between 1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial resolution. We test four major explanations for the...
| Principais autores: | Power, Timothy Joseph, Silveira, Rodrigo Rodrigues |
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| Outros Autores: | Tribunal Superior Eleitoral |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
2019
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| Assuntos: | |
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| Resumo: |
Investigates the electorally expressed ideology
of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between
1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners
of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial
resolution. We test four major explanations for the variation in
ideology at the municipal level: the effect of incumbent alignments,
social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion. We
ind that although the Brazilian electorate as a whole leans to the
right, there has been a 'gravitational effect' exerted by presidential
incumbents over local ideology, and during the PT years this
was visible in municipal outcomes. However, the vast majority of
municipalities tended to the right even during the period of PT national
government. During the late Dilma Rousseff years there was
a return to a more conservative vote-revealed ideology at the local
level, with a sharper veer to the right in the 2016 municipal and
2018 federal elections under Michel Temer. Overall, when we examine
local voting in PR elections, we observe that there was no
durable electoral realignment in the period under study. |
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