Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study
Investigates the electorally expressed ideology of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between 1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial resolution. We test four major explanations for the...
| Principais autores: | Power, Timothy Joseph, Silveira, Rodrigo Rodrigues |
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| Outros Autores: | Tribunal Superior Eleitoral |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
2019
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oai:bdjur.stj.jus.br.teste5:oai:localhost:bdtse-54212020-06-02 Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study Mapeamento das preferências ideológicas nas eleições brasileiras, 1994-2018 : um estudo em nível municipal Power, Timothy Joseph Silveira, Rodrigo Rodrigues Tribunal Superior Eleitoral Ideologia Eleições Brasil Investigates the electorally expressed ideology of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between 1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial resolution. We test four major explanations for the variation in ideology at the municipal level: the effect of incumbent alignments, social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion. We ind that although the Brazilian electorate as a whole leans to the right, there has been a 'gravitational effect' exerted by presidential incumbents over local ideology, and during the PT years this was visible in municipal outcomes. However, the vast majority of municipalities tended to the right even during the period of PT national government. During the late Dilma Rousseff years there was a return to a more conservative vote-revealed ideology at the local level, with a sharper veer to the right in the 2016 municipal and 2018 federal elections under Michel Temer. Overall, when we examine local voting in PR elections, we observe that there was no durable electoral realignment in the period under study. Investiga a ideologia eleitoralmente expressa dos eleitores brasileiros através de análise ecológica em nível municipal entre 1994 e 2018. Nosso objetivo é analisar os principais condicionantes de padrões agregados de ideologia medidos em uma alta resolução espacial. Testamos quatro grandes explicações para a variação da ideologia no nível municipal: o efeito dos alinhamentos estabelecidos, a modernização social, o pluralismo político e a inclusão social. Descobrimos que, embora o eleitorado brasileiro como um todo se incline para a direita, tem havido um "efeito gravitacional " exercido pelos presidenciáveis sobre a ideologia local e, durante os anos do PT, isso era visível nos resultados municipais. No entanto, a grande maioria dos municípios tendeu para a direita, mesmo durante o período do governo nacional do PT. Durante os últimos anos de Dilma Rousseff, houve um retorno a uma ideologia reveladora de voto mais conservadora em nível local, com um desvio mais acentuado para a direita nas eleições municipais de 2016 e nas eleições federais de 2018 sob Michel Temer. No geral, quando examinamos o voto local nas eleições de RP, observamos que não houve realinhamento eleitoral durável no período em estudo. 2019-03-08T17:04:22Z 2019-03-08T17:04:22Z 2019 Artigo POWER, Timothy J.; RODRIGUES-SILVEIRA, Rodrigo. Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018: a municipal-level study. Brazilian Political Science Review, São Paulo, v. 13, n. 1, p. 1-27, 2019. http://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/xmlui/handle/bdtse/5421 en <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.pt_BR"><img alt="Licença Creative Commons" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />Este item está licenciado com uma Licença <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.pt_BR">Creative Commons Atribuição-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional</a>. 27 p. |
| institution |
TSE |
| collection |
TSE |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Ideologia Eleições Brasil |
| spellingShingle |
Ideologia Eleições Brasil Power, Timothy Joseph Silveira, Rodrigo Rodrigues Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| description |
Investigates the electorally expressed ideology
of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between
1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners
of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial
resolution. We test four major explanations for the variation in
ideology at the municipal level: the effect of incumbent alignments,
social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion. We
ind that although the Brazilian electorate as a whole leans to the
right, there has been a 'gravitational effect' exerted by presidential
incumbents over local ideology, and during the PT years this
was visible in municipal outcomes. However, the vast majority of
municipalities tended to the right even during the period of PT national
government. During the late Dilma Rousseff years there was
a return to a more conservative vote-revealed ideology at the local
level, with a sharper veer to the right in the 2016 municipal and
2018 federal elections under Michel Temer. Overall, when we examine
local voting in PR elections, we observe that there was no
durable electoral realignment in the period under study. |
| author2 |
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral |
| format |
Artigo |
| author |
Power, Timothy Joseph Silveira, Rodrigo Rodrigues |
| title |
Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| title_short |
Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| title_full |
Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| title_fullStr |
Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| title_sort |
mapping ideological preferences in brazilian elections, 1994-2018 : a municipal-level study |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/xmlui/handle/bdtse/5421 |
| _version_ |
1806195556273356800 |
| score |
12,587216 |