Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico
It proposes a Montecarlo simulation analysis to estimate the sources of bias in the main national surveys for the Congressional Race in Mexico from 1997 to 2012. According to similar approaches for other electoral systems, the main sources of error analyzed were the pollster bias. The results of suc...
| Autor principal: | Torhton Granados, Miguel Angel |
|---|---|
| Outros Autores: | Tribunal Superior Eleitoral |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
2020
|
| Assuntos: | |
| Obter o texto integral: |
|
| id |
oai:bdjur.stj.jus.br.teste5:oai:localhost:bdtse-6272 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
tse |
| spelling |
oai:bdjur.stj.jus.br.teste5:oai:localhost:bdtse-62722020-06-02 Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico Torhton Granados, Miguel Angel Tribunal Superior Eleitoral Eleições Pesquisa eleitoral México It proposes a Montecarlo simulation analysis to estimate the sources of bias in the main national surveys for the Congressional Race in Mexico from 1997 to 2012. According to similar approaches for other electoral systems, the main sources of error analyzed were the pollster bias. The results of such analysis may be indicative of some of the main problems facing electoral polls in Mexico. The direction and patterns of bias for each pollster were identified. The sources and the characteristics of systematic errors could be of great value to understand the complexities of the Mexican electoral system and the challenges for polling agencies. Este artículo propone un análisis de simulación Montecarlo para estimar las fuentes del sesgo en las principales encuestas nacionales para las elecciones legislativas en México de 1997 a 2012. A partir de aproximaciones similares para otros sistemas electorales, este artículo analiza las fuentes de error producidas por el tiempo antes de la elección y el sesgo de la encuestadora. Los resultados de este análisis pueden ser indicativas de algunos de los principales problemas de las encuestas electorales en México. La dirección y los patrones de sesgo de cada encuestador fueron identificados. Las fuentes y las características de estos errores podrían ser valiosos para entender las complejidades del sistema electoral mexicano y los retos para lãs agencias encuestadoras. 2020-01-21T19:31:25Z 2020-01-21T19:31:25Z 2016 Artigo TORHTON GRANADOS, Miguel Angel. Estimating the sources of bias: a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico. Em Debate: Periódico de Opinião Pública e Conjuntura Política, Belo Horizonte, ano 8, n. 7, p. 34-47, dez. 2016. http://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/xmlui/handle/bdtse/6272 en <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.pt_BR"><img alt="Licença Creative Commons" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-nd/4.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />Este item está licenciado com uma Licença <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.pt_BR">Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial-SemDerivações 4.0 Internacional</a>. 14 p. |
| institution |
TSE |
| collection |
TSE |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Eleições Pesquisa eleitoral México |
| spellingShingle |
Eleições Pesquisa eleitoral México Torhton Granados, Miguel Angel Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| description |
It proposes a Montecarlo simulation analysis to estimate the sources of bias in the main national surveys for the Congressional Race in Mexico from 1997 to 2012. According to similar approaches for other electoral systems, the main sources of error analyzed were the pollster bias. The results of such analysis may be indicative of some of the main problems facing electoral polls in Mexico. The direction and patterns of bias for each pollster were identified. The sources and the characteristics of systematic errors could be of great value to understand the complexities of the Mexican electoral system and the challenges for polling agencies. |
| author2 |
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral |
| format |
Artigo |
| author |
Torhton Granados, Miguel Angel |
| title |
Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| title_short |
Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| title_full |
Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| title_fullStr |
Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the Congressional race in Mexico |
| title_sort |
estimating the sources of bias : a predictive model to analyze polling performance for the congressional race in mexico |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/xmlui/handle/bdtse/6272 |
| _version_ |
1806195581180182528 |
| score |
12,572395 |